Published Aug. 26|Updated Aug. 26
To the glee of tailgaters and TV executives everywhere, another college football season has commenced. Week 1 looms, and all the sport’s normal accoutrement are in place.
Humidity, hype, handicapping, Herbstreit, and of course, hot seat story lines.
A formal kickoff to any season wouldn’t be complete without a detailed assessment of coaches’ job security. It has become embedded in the college football fabric, a pastime as revered and refined as hand signals and halftime choreography.
While the size and scope of hot seat analyses vary throughout cyberspace, we’re limiting ours to the Sunshine State. Here, in ascending order, is our job security ranking of Florida’s seven Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. The No. 7 coach is the safest, in terms of job stability, with the heat rising as we reach No. 1.
7. Alex Golesh, USF
The way things have trended at USF the last 20 months, we wouldn’t be shocked if the Bulls’ future on-campus stadium (set to open in 2027) came with a Golesh statue erected out front. A classic micro-manager whose “process” for his team spans everything from practice effort to study habits to nutrition to toenail length, Golesh has briskly transformed the Bulls from laughingstock to league title contender.
The 7-6 record in his inaugural season — after the program totaled four wins from 2020-22 — was no fluke. An indefatigable recruiter, Golesh has effectively replenished the roster and fostered confidence in a once-languishing locker room. If the Bulls get to eight or nine wins in 2024, they’d be poised for a promotion to a power league when the next wave of realignment commences.
6. Mike Norvell, FSU
After a wretched start in Tallahassee, Norvell has re-established the Seminoles as a national force. Prior to Saturday’s 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, FSU was widely favored to repeat as ACC champion. A dogged recruiter and astute offensive strategist, he received a contract extension and massive pay raise after the ‘Noles’ undefeated regular season and AAC title game triumph last year.
We rank him one notch below Golesh simply because the stakes and expectations are higher at FSU, and one dropoff year could dramatically alter the narrative (consider all the grumbling after one defeat in Dublin). We don’t see such a swoon occurring; FSU, winner of 23 games the past two seasons, was No. 10 in the Associated Press preseason poll.
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Explore all your options5. Tom Herman, Florida Atlantic
While the injury-besieged Owls stumbled (4-8) in Herman’s inaugural season, we see a significant turnaround transpiring. Herman’s simply too bright (he’s a member of Mensa International, the world’s oldest high-IQ society) and too seasoned to expect an extended swoon. A meticulous overseer in the mold of Golesh, Herman has won at each of his stops. Even his beleaguered tenure at Texas featured four bowl wins (in four seasons) and a 10-win campaign in 2018.
Herman seems to be focused on recruiting heavily in his back yard (a solid recipe for any south Florida coach) and has found key components in the portal (such as Marshall transfer quarterback Cam Fancher). The 2024 schedule screams eight or nine wins. Bet here is, Herman ultimately flourishes with the Owls before landing another Power Four gig.
4. Mike MacIntyre, Florida International
MacIntyre belongs to that tiny fraternity of coaches subsisting off one glorious season. Since leading Colorado to a 10-4 mark and Pac-12 division title in 2018, his teams have gone 18-29, including consecutive 4-8 seasons at FIU. A third consecutive subpar year might seal his fate.
Though the Panthers return their entire starting offensive backfield, they were picked eighth in the Conference USA preseason poll. Another losing season would be MacIntyre’s 10th in 12 seasons as a head coach. Not sure how that fosters confidence in a recruiting base.
3. Gus Malzahn, UCF
The Knights’ surreal span of prosperity, which included 35 wins and one mythical national crown from 2017-19, is long gone. Malzahn, hired in 2021 when Josh Heupel bolted for Tennessee, simply hasn’t come close to replicating that success. The Knights went 18-9 in his first two seasons before going 6-7 (with a five-game losing streak) in their first Big 12 season last fall.
The 2024 schedule is highly favorable; Florida is the only non-conference foe with a pulse, and the Knights avoid Utah, Kansas State and Oklahoma State in league play. If they can’t carve out eight or nine wins this year, a fan-base revolt is likely.
2. Mario Cristobal, Miami
In two lackluster seasons (12-13 record) at his alma mater, Cristobal has flourished as a recruiter (consecutive top-10 classes) and foundered as a clock manager (see 2023 Georgia Tech game). The Hurricanes were 4-0 last year before their inexcusable last-second loss to the Yellow Jackets that set off a 3-6 finish. Another middling year simply won’t do in Coral Gables.
If the UM somehow can get past Florida in The Swamp on Saturday, another 4-0 start is likely (though USF will have something to say on that). But three of the next four contests are against Virginia Tech, Louisville and FSU. That stretch likely will determine Miami’s playoff fate — and Cristobal’s future.
1. Billy Napier, Florida
One look at the Gators’ ruthless schedule (which concludes with Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU) and it’s clear Napier — coming off consecutive losing seasons — is facing a no-win situation reminiscent of Ron Zook. Would seven wins suffice against such a daunting slate? Hard to say.
Schedule aside, Napier still faces long odds. His 2025 recruiting class is ranked only 30th nationally, and he remains mired in the embarrassing Jaden Rashada lawsuit. If Napier gets his team to over-achieve, the 2024 season could become historic. If the Gators keep scuffling, it becomes academic.
Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls
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